Big escalation happening right now
between the US and Iran. Here's the state of play as of today (July 15, 2026):
Where things stand The interim ceasefire/MoU that Trump and Iranian President
Masoud Pezeshkian signed on June 17 has effectively collapsed. The US renewed
its blockade of Iranian ports after another day of escalating exchanges with
Iran that appear to have doomed their interim peace deal, with the blockade on
vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports going into effect Tuesday evening.
How it fell apart Fighting resumed on July 8 after Iran allegedly struck
multiple commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the US to strike
Iranian territory, which was followed by Iranian strikes on US bases in Gulf
states. The US initially hit 85 targets in Iran, and Iran retaliated with
attacks on US military assets in Gulf states, triggering further US strikes on
90 Iranian targets.
Escalation through the week
- July 11-12: The US launched a major round of strikes
overnight, hitting about 140 Iranian military sites, with Iran targeting
Gulf nations over the weekend. Iranian strikes damaged US infrastructure
at bases in Kuwait, with the IRGC claiming it destroyed fuel storage tanks
and Patriot air defense systems at Ali Al Salem base.
- July 14: CENTCOM launched another wave of strikes just
before reimposing the naval blockade, hitting Bandar Abbas and Sirik.
CENTCOM said the strikes aimed at "degrading Iranian capabilities
used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz." Jordan
also reported Iranian missile strikes on its territory.
Trump's posture In a TV interview, Trump warned the US would strike bridges
and power plants next week unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table —
though he's blamed Iran for triggering the escalation, saying "they shot
first." He also rescinded a planned 20% reimbursement fee on cargo through
the Strait of Hormuz, saying it would be replaced by Gulf state investments in
the US.
Backdrop This all follows the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei,
whose multi-day state funeral concluded with burial in Mashhad around July
9-10. The broader war has been ongoing since late February 2026, after
US-Israeli airstrikes killed Khamenei and other Iranian officials, and has cost
US taxpayers an estimated $113.3 billion as of June.
Diplomats say technical talks are
nominally still alive, but with strikes continuing daily, it's unclear when or
if negotiations resume. Want me to dig into a specific angle — oil/market
impact, the Gulf states' involvement, or the nuclear negotiations track?
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