Here's the latest, and it's a serious escalation:
Where things stand (as of Friday morning, July 10):
Ceasefire has effectively collapsed. Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire "over" on Wednesday at the NATO summit in Ankara, and the US carried out a second consecutive day of strikes on Thursday, hitting roughly 90 targets in Iran to degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran retaliated broadly. Iran's IRGC struck US-linked sites in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan overnight Thursday, including a US command-and-control center and an air base in Al-Azraq, Jordan, hit with 10 ballistic missiles. Jordan said it intercepted eight incoming missiles. Kuwait's defense ministry reported one injury and intercepted three ballistic missiles, one cruise missile, and 10 drones.
Trump's tone has hardened. He called further negotiations "a waste of time," said he wasn't sure he wanted a peace deal with Tehran, and told reporters to "let's just finish the job."
But diplomacy isn't fully dead. Despite the strikes, technical talks between the US and Iran are continuing, and a US official told Fox News the US remains committed to finding a resolution even amid Iran's violations of the ceasefire memorandum.
Khamenei's funeral concluded. Iran's former Supreme Leader, killed earlier this year in a US-Israeli strike, was laid to rest early Friday at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, drawing large crowds and nationalist rhetoric from Iranian officials.
New wrinkle overnight: more explosions were reported in southern Iran (Bushehr, Chabahar, Konarak) Thursday into Friday, but a US official told Al Jazeera the US military wasn't behind the latest round — no one has yet claimed responsibility.
Assassination concern: The WSJ reported Israel shared intelligence with the US suggesting Iran was considering a new plot to assassinate Trump, which — if confirmed — would mark a further escalation.
Market-relevant angle: oil spiked over 5% on the initial escalation, but futures Friday morning are actually roughly flat-to-softer, suggesting some fatigue/relief that talks are continuing rather than a full breakdown. This is exactly the kind of headline-risk environment that's been whipping the Dow around session to session — expect continued volatility tied to any fresh strike, retaliation, or talks update rather than pure technicals.
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