06:00 PM 06:00 PM |
| 57K | 129K |
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06: 06:00 PM 00 PM |
| 4.2% | 4.3% |
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06:00 PM |
| 0.3% | 0.3% |
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06:00 PM |
| 3.5% | 3.4% |
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06:00 PM |
| Initial Jobless Claims JUN/27 | 215K | 216K |
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06:00 PM |
| 61.5% | 61.8% |
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06:00 PIn June 2026, the US economy added 57K jobs, well below the revised down from 129K in May and forecasts of 110K. It was roughly in line with the average monthly change over the previous year (+36K), despite being the lowest job gain in four months. In professional and business services, social assistance, and health care, employment continued to rise in June. Source: United States. There was a decline in leisure and hospitality employment. Labor Statistics Bureau
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the monthly U.S. jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It shows how many jobs were added or lost in the economy excluding farm workers, private household employees, and non-profit workers. Markets watch it closely because it influences Fed rate decisions and the dollar.
Latest June 2026 NFP — released today, July 2, 2026
Expectations vs Results:
Consensus forecast: +110,000 jobs
Unemployment rate: Expected to hold at 4.3%
Average hourly earnings: Expected +0.2% m/m, 3.5% y/y
Analyst takes:
TD Securities: Expected softer at +80k (+55k private, +25k government), unemployment down to 4.2%
National Bank of Canada: Forecast +90k, saying job creation “not as robust as what we had been accustomed to between February and May”
ADP private payrolls came in at +98,000 for June, below the 113k-118k expectation
Context
Recent trend: NFP has surprised to the upside for 3 months straight. May added +172k, April +179k, March +214k. The 3-month average through May was 188k vs only 63k in the same period of 2025.
Labor market tone: Economists describe it as "no hire, no fire" — layoffs are historically low, but hiring has cooled. Job openings are still high at 1.04 per unemployed person.
Fed implications: With inflation risks easing, a weak NFP could hurt the USD, while a solid print keeps a September Fed rate hike on the table. CME FedWatch shows 63% chance of a hike by September.
Key sectors to watch in June
From ADP data:
Education/health services: +48,000 — strongest gainer
Trade/transportation/utilities: +15,000
Financial activities: +14,000
Leisure/hospitality: +2,000 — 6th month of weak hiring
Construction: +2,000
Manufacturing: +5,000
Natural resources/mining: -5,000
Last month — May 2026 BLS data
Total nonfarm: +172,000 to 159.001 million
Total private: +120,000 to 135.614 million
Unemployment: 4.3% for 4th straight month
Average hourly earnings: +8 cents to $32.31, +0.2% m/m
Revisions: March revised up +29k to +214k, April up +64k to +179k
Why it matters: NFP is the headline number for U.S. labor market health. Traders use it to gauge if the Fed will hike, hold, or cut. A print under ~50k would signal cooling, over 150k suggests strength
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