Abhi tak search results mein sirf pre-release expectations dikh rahe hain — aisa lagta hai ki minutes abhi release nahi hue hain ya results update nahi hue (yeh 2:00 PM ET — yaani aapke IST time mein aaj raat ~11:30 PM ke aas-paas — release honge).
Jab tak wait kar rahe hain, yeh hai poora context:
Kya hua tha June meeting mein:
Fed ne rates unchanged rakhe: 3.50%–3.75%
Yeh Kevin Warsh ka pehla meeting tha as Fed Chair, aur woh khud ka rate projection submit nahi kiya
Dot plot mein split tha: 9 officials ne 2026 mein kam se kam ek rate hike expect kiya, 8 ne no change, sirf 1 ne cut
2026 inflation (PCE) forecast 2.7% se 3.6% upar revise hua — kaafi bada jump
Market abhi kya price kar raha hai:
September rate hike ki odds roughly 50-55% (pehle 66% thi, June ke weak jobs report ke baad kam hui)
December hike ki odds kuch sources ke hisaab se 88% tak bhi price ho rahi hai — kaafi hawkish positioning
10-year Treasury yield ~4.47%, gold $4,150-4,175 range mein trade kar raha hai, minutes ka wait karte hue
Kya dekhna hai jab minutes aaye:
Kya "persistent inflation" jaisi language use hui hai
Nine hawkish dots mein se kitne actual voting members ke hain (12 voters hote hain, but 19 log dots submit karte hain — agar zyada non-voters hain toh hike coalition utni strong nahi jitni dikhti hai)
AI ke inflationary effects pe committee ne kitni discussion ki
Impact quick summary:
Hawkish minutes → USD strong, yields up, gold/stocks pressure mein
Dovish/mixed minutes → USD weak, yields down, risk assets ko relief
aap kya sochte hai